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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 06/30 12:45
Cattle Trade Higher, Hogs Drift Lower at Midday
The cattle complex is continuing to rally given the support the market saw
from a technical sense late last week.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's a mixed morning for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts are
trading higher, but the lean hog complex is drifting lower as fundamental
support isn't as strong as traders hoped it would be. New showlists appear to
be mixed, higher in Texas, and Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas. July
corn is down 1/4 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.50. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average is up 148.81 points and the NASDAQ is up 48.89 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Believe it or not, the live cattle complex is trading mostly higher into
Monday's noon hour following the large surge in which the market accomplished
last Friday. August live cattle are up $0.12 at $213.52, October live cattle
are up $0.05 at $209.87 and December live cattle are down $0.15 at $210.02.
More than anything traders seem to be looking at the market's regression and
seem to believe that enough immediate downside pressure has been endured for
the meantime. Now what's perplexing about that conclusion is that traders are
willing to advance the contracts amid mixed market fundamentals: boxed beef
prices continue to scale higher while fed cash cattle prices are drifting
lower. Thankfully Friday's surge of the contracts helped push the spot August
contract back above its 40-day moving average, which will continue to be a
threshold to monitor. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, and
Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas.
Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $224 to $225 which is $4.00
to $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average and Norther dressed
cattle traded at mostly $368 which is $10.00 lower than the previous week's
weighted average.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.10 ($396.59) and select up $0.65
($383.58) with a movement of 43 loads (24.49 loads of choice, 10.23 loads of
select, zero loads of trim and 8.21 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Following the lead of the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts
are also trading fully higher into Monday's noon hour. August feeders are up
$2.77 at $310.70, September feeders are up $2.85 at $310.75 and October feeders
are up $3.10 at $308.87. But even though the fed cash cattle market has been
trading lower in recent weeks, the feeder cattle complex has remained
consistent in the countryside as buyers continue to show up and buy
aggressively as they need to fill their orders and there simply aren't enough
calves to go around to do so in a relaxed manner. Given that this week is a
holiday-shortened week for the Fourth of July, feeder cattle sales will be
light.
LEAN HOGS:
While the cattle contracts are rallying, the lean hog complex is continuing
with its downward trend as the market isn't seeing the fundamental support it
needs currently. July lean hogs are down $2.47 at $110.77, August lean hogs are
down $2.55 at $107.72 and October lean hogs are down $1.97 at $92.65. Pork
cutout values are disturbing to look at this morning as the rib is down $16.25
and the ham is down $6.79.
The projected lean hog index for 6/27/2025 is down $0.26 at $111.76, and the
actual index for 6/26/2025 is up $0.13 at $112.02. Hog prices are higher on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $4.66 with a weighted average price of
$112.51, ranging from $104.00 to $113.00 on 706 head and a five-day rolling
average of $111.05. Pork cutouts total 211.88 loads with 175.14 loads of pork
cuts and 36.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.93, $116.53.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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