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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 12/12 11:41
Cattle Back Away from the Market's 100-Day Moving Average
Bids are on the table in Nebraska, but no new cash cattle trade has
developed today.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading mixed into Friday's noon hour as the cattle
contracts drift lower, away from the market's resistance at its 100-day moving
average, but the lean hog contracts are continuing to trade higher. No new cash
cattle trade has developed. March corn is down 3 1/2 cents per bushel and
January soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down
254.39 points and the NASDAQ is down 413.48 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Following Thursday's rally, the live cattle complex is once again trading
slightly lower as the market still doesn't believe it possesses enough support
to challenge the market's resistance at its 100-day moving average. One could
argue that the rally this week in the fed cash cattle market should be enough
support to help traders make that move, but from a technical standpoint,
traders still aren't confident about that leap. If traders were to challenge
the resistance at the 100-day moving average, they'd need to believe that
there's enough support in the marketplace to not only conquer that threshold,
but also sustain a position above that mark as a move over the 100-day moving
average would signal continued support, which is likely what traders are
struggling with most at this point given that they obviously see that the
market holds ample fundamental support this week, but don't know what's in
store for the upcoming holiday weeks. So far this week Northern dressed cattle
have traded at mostly $353 to $355, which is $10.00 to $12.00 higher than last
week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle have traded at mostly $230,
which is $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average. No new trade has
developed at this point, but bids are on the table again in Nebraska. February
live cattle are down $1.25 at $229.72, April live cattle are down $0.97 at
$229.70 and June live cattle are down $0.80 at $223.37.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.85 ($357.26) and select up $1.32
($344.87) with a movement of 89 loads (61.32 loads of choice, 8.07 loads of
select, 15.07 loads of trim and 4.20 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex doesn't seem to believe it has enough support
either to sustain its position above the market's 100-day moving average, and
it's currently trading below that threshold. January feeders are down $2.87 at
$340.52, March feeders are down $2.17 at $335.50 and April feeders are down
$2.07 at $334.50. Today's slight regression doesn't likely mean that traders
believe the market needs to again trade vastly lower, but rather that they
potentially jumped the gun on challenging the resistance at the market's
100-day moving average.
LEAN HOGS:
While the cattle contracts are trading mostly lower this morning, the lean
hog complex is fighting to keep its upward momentum. February lean hogs are up
$0.32 at $84.50, April lean hogs are up $0.35 at $89.57 and June lean hogs are
up $0.07 at $100.97. Today's support mostly comes from traders' willingness to
continue to advance the complex as pork cash prices and pork cutout values are
lower.
The projected lean hog index for 12/11/2025 is up $0.23 at $82.80, and the
actual index for 12/10/2025 is up $0.41 at $82.57. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.11 with a weighted average price of
$70.93, ranging from $68.00 to $74.00 on 345 head and a five-day rolling
average of $71.60. Pork cutouts total 202.88 loads with 184.90 loads of pork
cuts and 17.97 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.30, $98.54.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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