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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/28 11:32
Livestock Leap Higher
No new cash cattle trade has been reported thus far through Thursday's
trade, but more sales will likely develop ahead of the weekend.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
General Comments
Even though there are still concerns about whether a government shutdown
will occur, and about out economic state as a nation, the livestock contracts
have elected to look past those pressures this morning as all three of the
markets are trading higher. Heading into this afternoon be on the lookout for
the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report as well as Thursday's actual slaughter data.
December corn is up 4 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up
$3.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 170.30 points.
LIVE CATTLE
Like the feeder cattle market, the live cattle complex is back to trading
higher as traders find the market's downturn endured earlier this week enough
for the time being. No more cash cattle trade has developed, but it's likely
that more will pop up in small increments here and there before the week's end.
Thus far this week Southern live cattle have traded for $183 which is steady
with last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for
mostly $290 to $292 which is $1.00 to $2.00 lower than last week's weighted
average. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists remain at $183 plus in the
South and $292 plus in the North. Heading into this afternoon be on the lookout
for Thursday's actual slaughter data as last week steer prices jumped nine
pounds from the week before. October live cattle are up $1.85 at $186.75,
December live cattle are up $2.57 at $190.75 and February live cattle are up
$2.47 at $194.87.
Beef net sales of 17,700 mt for 2023 were up 29% from the previous week and
42% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (3,900
mt), South Korea (3,500 mt) and China (3,200 mt).
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.53 ($301.48) and select down $0.29
($278.22) with a movement of 70 loads (31.00 loads of choice, 23.92 loads of
select, 3.03 loads of trim and 12.39 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
After feeling the market's pressure throughout the earlier part of the week,
the feeder cattle contracts are now back to trading higher as traders believe
the downside endured has been enough at this point. Thankfully the market still
sits with tremendous fundamental support which is helping alleviate some of the
technical, economic and political pressures that continue to loom over the
marketplace. October feeders are up $2.37 at $254.62, November feeders are up
$2.87 at $257.67 and January feeders are up $2.82 at $260.22.
LEAN HOGS
The lean hog complex is rallying into Thursday's noon hour as the market
anxiously awaits this afternoon's Hogs and Pigs Report. The report is expected
to be favorable to the market as sows have been culled and numbers are expected
to remain depleted well into 2024. October lean hogs are up $1.62 at $83.72,
December lean hogs are up $2.95 at $75.72 and February lean hogs are up $2.62
at $78.90. The report will be released after today's close which likely means
that traders will react to the report first thing Friday morning.
The projected lean hog index for 9/27/2023 is unchanged at $86.14, and the
actual index for 9/26/2023 is down $0.17 at $86.14. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.64 with a weighted average price of
$76.08, ranging from $72.00 to $77.00 on 1,776 head and a five-day rolling
average of $77.10. Pork cutouts total 152.30 loads with 135.22 loads of pork
cuts and 17.08 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.56, $96.20.
Pork net sales of 27,400 mt for 2023 were down 9% from the previous week and
6% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (11,600
mt), Japan (4,500 mt) and South Korea (3,900 mt).
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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